It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
